Top Grossers: 7/21/14

[Kyle]

Rules: Guess the Friday through Sunday domestic gross (as reported in the actuals from Box Office Mojo) for the number one movie for the weekend of July 21-23. You get points based on the difference between your guess and the actual opening (whether its higher or lower). You don't have to guess a particular movie, just a dollar amount. Once you've made a guess, you can't change it. Guesses have to be submitted by midnight the Wednesday before the opening. Guesses must be rounded to the nearest million dollars. Results will be cumulative week to week for everyone that continues to play. If you miss a week, you can still play, but your score is 125% of the worst actual score awarded on the week you missed. If you miss two weeks in a row, you're out of the metagame, but still welcome to play the weekly game. The ongoing game will reset when there's only one player left.

Please feel free to discuss prospects and speculation- this is highly encouraged. But once you post up a guess, it cannot be changed.

I'll normally post this up on the Monday before the opening weekend, and will update the cumulative scores when the actuals are released (usually Tuesday afternoon).

Wide release movies opening this week include:
Dunkirk
Valerian
Girls Trip

Ongoing Scores (Updated):
poorpete: 12
Kyle: 28
Zen: 29
Zombie: 30
buckett: 35

Guesses (in millions):
Kyle- 57
Zen- 66
buckett- 61
Zombie- 58
poorpete- 52

[Kyle]

My guess:
Dunkirk- 57 million

[Zen]

Gonna go with Dunkirk...

for...

$66 mil...

[buckett]

61

[Kyle]

Ongoing scores updated.

[Kyle]

Today is the last day to get in your guess for this week. Make sure you make them by midnight!

[Zombie]

58

[poorpete]

$52 million

[Kyle]

Early numbers on deadline indicate that Dunkirk is going to get 51.8 million.

I wish you'd stop cheating at this game, Pete. You're aware that being a time traveler is cheating, right?

[poorpete]

Thought process, I had no idea, voted under because I was burned by optimism last week, and thought people (including me) were more wishing an acclaimed Nolan war film will be a hit than actual public interest. If Nov 2016 taught us anything... But hunches that's all.

I was originally going to go for 55, but thought that'd be cutting too close to your guess, so I went 52 so if I was 55 we'd tie.

[Stan]

I'm not surprised that Dunkirk is winning but is Valerian looking to be a major box office bomb? $17 mil opening weekend on a reported ~$200 mil budget (not that you can believe reported budgets). It'll probably be lucky to get $60 mil in the U.S. The French connection might boost its international sales, maybe $120 mill to be generous. I think a good rule of thumb is a gross that's double the budget to be profitable. Besson will never be handed a truckload of cash again.

[Kyle]

Valerian was made to be an international movie- but this still doesn't look like a profitable venture to me.

But I also can't wait to see it.

[Zombie]

I was pretty disappointing with Valerian. Some really cool ideas and special effects, but the dialogue and writing was so bad. I was surprised this was the same guy who made Fifth Element. He whiffed on his attempt to make a strong female character, too. It's a rental, for sure, even with all the special effects that would probably look better in theater than at home.

[Kyle]

Actual are in.

Dunkirk: $50,513,488

Results:
poorpete- 1
Kyle- 6
Zombie- 7
buckett- 10
Zen- 15